Expanded by Popular Demand...

Okay, this is my last post about the Best Picture announcement, but since so many of you clicked over to my speculative chart for 1999-2008, and since I seem to be nearly alone in feeling pretty sanguine and optimistic about the promised change, I have now made it a speculative chart for 1987-2008. Yes, every once in a while, something ghastly potentially happens (à la Legends of the Fall or Good Morning, Vietnam) but just as often something awesome potentially happens (à la Hoop Dreams and Au revoir, les enfants in the same years).

The real story here, though, are the lists of what still doesn't qualify, even in a double-capacity race. It's hardly the case that a ten-wide field opens the door for "every" movie with critical raves, Globes or SAG support, ardent followings, Oscar-friendly nobility, pop-phenom status, big studio pushes, unembarrassing box-office windfalls, or middlebrow "sleeper" support automatically qualify. It's a really exciting toss-up in years like 1987-1989, and weird anomalies still occur. For instance, even the expanded list in 1996 maintains, I think, a bizarrely anti-studio line-up, and plenty of "lone director" nominees survive: Egoyan, Scorsese, probably Hallström and Kieślowski...

I can't take this chart any further, since 1987 was as early as I remember following all the critics' awards, ten-best lists, and other buzz as it all transpired. Just a few years further back, and I'd be almost totally tone-deaf to how the PR, the release schedule, and popular word-of-mouth actually played out. Again, I'm sure there's plenty to debate about my cuckoo choices, but I look at these lists and still feel that a Best Picture nomination would "mean" just as much in relation to these ten films as it does in relation to the current lists of five. No loss of horse-race drama for those of us who get off on that. More races where the historical winner might have had a tougher fight, for better or worse. This is going to be great!