Cannespotting

With awards announcements coming tomorrow, here are my quick guesses as to the Cannes anointees:

PALME D'OR Gomorrah, Italy
GRAND JURY PRIZE 24 City, China
JURY PRIZE Waltz with Bashir, Israel
These are the three movies I can't see not winding up here, for reasons of overall critical and audience response, proclivities of the jurors, and contemporary political relevance. Maybe Che could make a run in here, or either The Class or A Christmas Tale could work into the GJP or Jury Prize slots, but otherwise, I'm feeling pretty good about this group.

DIRECTOR Steven Soderbergh, Che
(alt. Arnaud Desplechin, A Christmas Tale)

ACTRESS Martina Gusman, Leonera/Lion's Den
(alt. Arta Dobroshi, Lorna's Silence)
Sure, Angelina could spoil, but I'd be surprised

ACTOR Benicio Del Toro, Che
(alt. Tony Servillo, Il Divo)

SCREENPLAY E. Bourdieu and A. Desplechin, A Christmas Tale
(alt. Charlie Kaufman, Synecdoche, New York)

TECHNICAL GRAND PRIZE Mychael Danna/score, Adoration
(alt. César Charlone/cinematography, Blindness)

FIPRESCI PRIZE Gomorrah, Italy
(alt. Three Monkeys, Turkey)
The international critics' prize, as likely to coincide with the Palme as to endorse a solid competition fave that isn't otherwise a contender (the last three winners were 4 Months..., Climates, and Caché)

PRIZE OF THE ECUMENICAL JURY Lorna's Silence, Belgium
(alt. Gomorrah, Italy)
The clerical/social justice prize, though not narrowly defined, and not always awarded (omitted last year, and conferred upon Babel, Caché, and The Motorcycle Diaries in the three years preceding)

COMPETITION FILMS IN THE ORDER I'M EAGER TO SEE THEM The Headless Woman; Synecdoche, New York; Che; Two Lovers; 24 City; Gomorrah; A Christmas Tale; The Changeling/The Exchange; Waltz with Bashir; The Frontier of Dawn; Blindness; The Class/Entre les murs; Lorna's Silence; Serbis; Il Divo; Lion's Den; Three Monkeys; Adoration; Linha de Passe; My Magic; Delta; Palermo Shooting

Photo from Gomorrah, © 2008 Fandango/Rai Films