Wednesday, January 09, 2013

2012 Oscar Nomination Predictions (Updated, Again)

Not sure how much time I'll have to complete these before Five Dark Thirty PST tomorrow, but I'm at least going to scratch out my guesses in a few categories when I've got the time over the course of today.  I haven't read anybody else's pieces in this area, so I have only a little idea where I'm on or off prognosticators' consensus.  I have at least kept up with the critics' awards, the Globe and various Guild rosters, and the BAFTA announcement.  As of today, then, I'm inclining toward...

PICTURE: Amour, Argo, Life, Lincoln, Misérables, Moonrise, Silver, Zero
Runners Up: Beasts, Django, Master
I realize I'm being optimistic about Haneke and Anderson. Feeling shaky about Silver, but that may have a lot to do with my own befuddled response to the film, and to its absolutely bizarre release strategy, though I can't imagine that has prevented Academy voters from seeing it.

DIRECTOR: Affleck, Bigelow, Hooper, Lee, Spielberg
In other words, the DGA list
Runners up: Haneke, Russell, Anderson (Wes) ...and Zeitlin!

ACTRESS: Chastain, Lawrence, Riva, Wallis, Watts
Runners up: Mirren, Cotillard, Weisz, in that order, probably replacing Wallis, Watts in that order

ACTOR: Day-Lewis, Hawkes, Jackman, Phoenix, Washington
Runners up: Cooper, Trintignant
These are very different kinds of runners-up, one that lots of people expect to see (but I'm getting the "too soon" vibe on Cooper, and not enough traction) and one that nobody expects to see.  I think if SPC had brought Amour out sooner—which to my eyes would have made sense on a lot of levels—Trintignant could have landed that Fishburne-type nod where voters belatedly connecting with one ballyhooed performance discover two geniuses for the price of one.  Maybe it'll still happen?  Everyone here except for Day-Lewis feels like they peaked kind of early... one problem Trintignant doesn't have.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Dowd, Field, Hathaway, Hunt, Smith
Runners up: Adams, Kidman ...and Weaver!
I only half-heartedly consider Kidman a runner-up, though I hope she makes it. Conversely, I can't believe I'm not picking Adams, especially with reasons to feel shaky about Dowd, Hunt, and Smith, but this is where I am. Don't hate me if I change my mind before dawn.

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Arkin, Hoffman, Jones, McConaughey, Redmayne
Runners up: De Niro, DiCaprio, Bardem, Jackson, Waltz
Of the four candidates I have heard described as "locks," I find that designation hardest to reconcile with De Niro's performance or his standing in the precursors.  I'm probably being perverse in imagining that two of the possible sixth-spotters will both qualify, and that Django will totally wipe out, but there you are.  I'm perverse.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Amour, Django, Master, Moonrise, Zero
Runners up: Middle of Nowhere, which I'd absolutely love to see, or Intouchables or Looper ...or, uh, Flight!

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Argo, Bernie, Lincoln, The Sessions, Silver Linings Playbook
Runners up: Beasts, Life of Pi, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Les Misérables
I can feel my own shittiness at calling this race, but Bernie has such loyal, tickled admirers and feels very much like a Writers Branch movie, which Beasts, Pi, and Misérables don't, at least not to me. Perks would have an even stronger shot if it had received the wider platform I still think it could have merited. Still, any of these four could appear on the roster and I wouldn't be surprised at all.

FOREIGN FILM: Amour, Intouchables, Kon-Tiki, No, A Royal Affair
Runners Up: War Witch, Beyond the Hills, Sister, The Deep For once, a really rich semifinalist list. My favorites so far are Sister and War Witch, and I'd love to see one make the list. A Royal Affair is the only one of my predicted five I have seen, and it's a good one that actually improves as it goes. Not as big a fan of the Mungiu, but it'd be nice to see Romania finally included.

By the way, my absolute biggest cheer of the morning will happen if the brilliant Eagleman Stag gets nominated for Animated Short. I helped give a best-of-fest juried prize to that movie in Chicago last year, met the filmmaker, and had an amazing conversation with him about the work. Go go go, Mikey Please!

This might be it, but I'll add more if I can...

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Anonymous BVR said...

You should add the "Who SHOULD be nominated" for each category ;)

5:25 PM, January 09, 2013  
Blogger Lev Lewis said...

Brilliant Bernie call. Completely slipped my mind but seems like a perfect fit.

10:25 PM, January 09, 2013  
Blogger James T said...

I'm rooting against all the movies I've seen this year * because.. I dunno.. I just didn't really enjoy any of the movies this year.

* Exceptions are: Magic Mike, maybe Life of Pi and my favorite of the few movies I've seen this year...The Dak Knight Rises!!
I know, right? I thought it was well-made, well-acted, Hathaway and Cotillard had roles I liked and I liked its ethics. Many flaws but whatever.

I liked Elena even more but don't know what year it belongs to.

2:56 AM, January 10, 2013  
Anonymous Quvanzhemmanuelle said...

Sorry if this is an inappropriate post to ask this on, but Nick, you're doing a live blog of the Golden Globes, right?

If you don't, I WILL reveal to you that Mercedes Ruehl did, in fact, beat Juliette Lewis.

6:05 PM, January 10, 2013  
Anonymous Fabrizzio said...

I live for those. I've read each of them about five times each.

6:06 PM, January 10, 2013  
Anonymous Yes, I am the same commenter who wrote the previous two comments said...


6:07 PM, January 10, 2013  

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