2012 Oscar Nomination Predictions (Updated, Again)
PICTURE: Amour, Argo, Life, Lincoln, Misérables,
Runners Up: Beasts, Django, Master
I realize I'm being optimistic about Haneke and Anderson. Feeling shaky about Silver, but that may have a lot to do with my own befuddled response to the film, and to its absolutely bizarre release strategy, though I can't imagine that has prevented Academy voters from seeing it.
In other words, the DGA list
Runners up: Haneke, Russell, Anderson (Wes) ...and Zeitlin!
ACTRESS: ✓ Chastain, Lawrence, Riva, Wallis, Watts
Runners up: Mirren, Cotillard, Weisz, in that order, probably replacing Wallis, Watts in that order
Runners up: Cooper, Trintignant
These are very different kinds of runners-up, one that lots of people expect to see (but I'm getting the "too soon" vibe on Cooper, and not enough traction) and one that nobody expects to see. I think if SPC had brought Amour out sooner—which to my eyes would have made sense on a lot of levels—Trintignant could have landed that Fishburne-type nod where voters belatedly connecting with one ballyhooed performance discover two geniuses for the price of one. Maybe it'll still happen? Everyone here except for Day-Lewis feels like they peaked kind of early... one problem Trintignant doesn't have.
Runners up: Adams, Kidman ...and Weaver!
I only half-heartedly consider Kidman a runner-up, though I hope she makes it. Conversely, I can't believe I'm not picking Adams, especially with reasons to feel shaky about Dowd, Hunt, and Smith, but this is where I am. Don't hate me if I change my mind before dawn.
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Arkin, Hoffman, Jones,
Runners up: De Niro, DiCaprio, Bardem, Jackson, Waltz
Of the four candidates I have heard described as "locks," I find that designation hardest to reconcile with De Niro's performance or his standing in the precursors. I'm probably being perverse in imagining that two of the possible sixth-spotters will both qualify, and that Django will totally wipe out, but there you are. I'm perverse.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Amour, Django,
Runners up: Middle of Nowhere, which I'd absolutely love to see, or Intouchables or Looper ...or, uh, Flight!
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Argo,
Runners up: Beasts, Life of Pi, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Les Misérables
I can feel my own shittiness at calling this race, but Bernie has such loyal, tickled admirers and feels very much like a Writers Branch movie, which Beasts, Pi, and Misérables don't, at least not to me. Perks would have an even stronger shot if it had received the wider platform I still think it could have merited. Still, any of these four could appear on the roster and I wouldn't be surprised at all.
FOREIGN FILM: Amour,
Runners Up: War Witch, Beyond the Hills, Sister, The Deep For once, a really rich semifinalist list. My favorites so far are Sister and War Witch, and I'd love to see one make the list. A Royal Affair is the only one of my predicted five I have seen, and it's a good one that actually improves as it goes. Not as big a fan of the Mungiu, but it'd be nice to see Romania finally included.
By the way, my absolute biggest cheer of the morning will happen if the brilliant Eagleman Stag gets nominated for Animated Short. I helped give a best-of-fest juried prize to that movie in Chicago last year, met the filmmaker, and had an amazing conversation with him about the work. Go go go, Mikey Please!
This might be it, but I'll add more if I can...