2014 Oscar Predictions, Preferences, and Updated Reflections

One of Mason's formative experiences in Boyhood came in Winter 2003, when he was five, surfing the iMac, trying to figure out if Daniel Day-Lewis or Jack Nicholson was going to win Best Actor.  He found Nick's Flick Picks and saw that Adrien Brody had a real shot.  Why Sandra Adair couldn't include a one-second insert on my website, I can't quite say; it was the last time I was right about a high-profile, difficult-to-call Oscar race, which surely deserves commemorating.  This year's competitions are so inscrutable at so many high altitudes that I'm worried about Mason and me being able to share another moment like that.  But kid, I'm going to try.

Best Documentary Short, Best Animated Short, and Best Live Action Short
Reader, I haven't seen them. If you knew what February is like for college faculty... I want to believe Crisis Hotline, The Bigger Picture, and The Phone Call have the best shots, based on what friends are telling me, but I'm in no position to predict, much less to prefer.
Winners: Crisis Hotline, Feast, and The Phone Call. Two out of three good calls, without even seeing them! Feast's win for Animated Short augured good things to come for the feature it accompanied in theaters. Meanwhile, Neil Patrick Harris made a pretty crass joke at the seeming expense of the Crisis Hotline co-director... who, making matters worse, had just mentioned her son's suicide, moments before the band played her off and he dinged her for her dress.  This unfortunate beat was somewhat emblematic of a weirdly off-key and disappointing performance from our host.

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Virunga
Should Win: Citizenfour (of the two I've seen)
Also Nominated: Finding Vivian Maier, Last Days in Vietnam, The Salt of the Earth
Here I feel more shame, since I usually make a point of seeing these even before they get nominated. Last Days of Vietnam is sitting, rented but unwatched, in my Amazon Video Library. Virunga is sitting on Netflix, to which I admittedly don't belong, but I know friends could've hooked me up.  I realize Citizenfour looks like a prohibitive favorite, but Edward Snowden is at least as divisive a figure as Chris Kyle; even his admirers sometimes gripe, fairly or not, that Citizenfour is too close to raw footage, or that its historical importance outstrips its aesthetic achievement.  I wouldn't be surprised to see any of these win, but I think the braided emotional appeals of Virunga (pro-animal, anti-war) might give it an edge.
Winner: Citizenfour. Okay, it's possible I over-thought this. Of all the races, this is the one whose vote totals I would be most curious to see.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Also Nominated: Foxcatcher, Guardians of the Galaxy
Another race where I wouldn't be surprised if every nominee had healthy support, but this still looks like an easy get for Budapest.  Every character has a memorable look, from the most ostentatious (Swinton, Ronan) to the relatively subtle (Abraham, Law), and in this crowd it has BPA (Best Picture Advantage).  The Grand Budapest Hotel could easily win more races than any other movie this year.
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel. All of Wes Anderson's colleagues seemed genuinely thrilled to thank him. Wonderfully palpable affection.

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Oscar 2013: Predictions, Preferences

All feature-film categories now complete!

Look how distressed Sandra Bullock is, trying to glance into her crystal ball, straining to quantify how many Oscars her movie Gravity will win tomorrow.  I'm sporting the same look on my face as I publicly prognosticate winners for the first time since Jennifer Lawrence was in the Brownies.  But why not take a stab at it?  I've been spouting off on every other angle of the Academy Awards this year: diagnosing the narrowing field of "top" competitors for The Advocate; debunking popular myths about the Oscars and their biases in The Washington Post; and discussing some favorites among this year's nominees and some formative Oscar moments with Der Spiegel, though if Sie kein Deutsche sprechen, you won't be able to read it.  What I have not done anywhere, in any language, is forecast who is winning or fess up to my own choices.  So many of my favorite people are sticking their necks out.  So, as Charles Busch belts out in Die, Mommie, Die! - widely regarded as a near-miss for a Best Picture nod in 2003 - "Why not me?"

Best Visual Effects
Gravity will stomp all over its competitors, making it the sixth Best Picture nominee in a row to cop the prize (after Benjamin Button, Avatar, Inception, Hugo, and Life of Pi, just so you don't have to look it up).  You may take this streak as proof of the Academy's growth over the years—since even within my lifetime as an Oscar queen "effects movies" were often persona non grata in Best Picture—or all you may see is an industry increasingly compelled toward digital extravaganzas. Either way, Gravity would probably mop the floor even with the five past winners I just named, much less with the competitors it has to vanquish here... which in a way is too bad, because there's a lot to say for the invigorating spectacles and sleek execution of several sequences in Star Trek and Iron Man 3.  I was less taken with the effects work in The Lone Ranger (yes, even as regards that train crash), and The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug was one of a handful of Oscar nominees I missed in theaters. Will: Gravity  Should: Gravity  Hey, Where's The Great Gatsby, which owes the bulk of its locations, color schemes, camera movements, and memorably debauched extras to digital intervention

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
From an impressively strong field we slide over to an annoyingly weak one. Dallas Buyers Club will probably win on default, since voters tend to gravitate to Best Picture nominees unless there's a stirring reason not to.  Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa is many things, but not that.  (Actually, Bad Grandpa on its best day is only a couple of things, which disappointed me, since I thought the first Jackass movie was a hoot.  Especially seeing it in a Detroit shopping mall, with people flashing laser sights on the screen midfilm.)  The Lone Ranger has the more-is-more thing nailed down, and a lot of graphically arresting cosmetics have been lovingly applied to actors like Barry Pepper and Helena Bonham Carter.  Still, AMPAS has recently rejected some ostentatious contenders who would have been shoo-ins in the Rick Baker era (The Time Machine, Norbit, Hellboy II) when a more broadly admired film presents itself as an option (Frida, La Vie en rose, and Benjamin Button in those cases).  I think it might have been nice if more of the Buyers Club's subscribers had looked visibly ill.  I would love to see a bruising throwdown between those who insist that Johnny Depp's bird-stapled-to-his-head "Native American" is the year's most horrifying faux-archetype and those who proffer Jared Leto's eyebrowless transwoman for the same distinction.  But failing that battle, and following the canny publicizing of Dallas's breathtakingly low budget, Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews ought to get own their chance to say "All right, all right, all right!" or possibly even speak about Neptune. Will: Dallas Buyers Club  Should: Lone Ranger  Hey, Where's American Hustle, obviously, but also the lightly greyed hair of Llewyn Davis and the wax-museum quality of so many of his acquaintances.  Also, Cate Blanchett's Park Avenue blonde tresses in Blue Jasmine, which are turning into dark roots before her eyes, or ours at least.

Best Supporting Actor
On the subject of Dallas Buyers Club, I thought the movie was fantastic and Jared Leto pretty good the first time I saw them.  Upon revisiting a week or so ago, Dallas betrayed more stress marks, and Leto—by now vaulted from Casting Stunt That Paid Off to Prohibitive Favorite for the Oscar—still seems ...pretty good, without quite explaining what Rayon's doing in this script.  There are some pearl-clutching gestures and other frou-fra in the performance that make it seem stale, conceived more for an audience than from a character who's been built feet up, as they say in American Hustle.  And speaking of Hustle, Bradley Cooper has a large enough part in that movie that he's drawn fire for being a lead falsely slumming in this category.  Yet there are lots of ways to confront the question of who's really "supporting" in a film.  Leto's scenes are more limited, but every single one is handed to the character to be charismatic, or tragic, or funny, or all three, just like Angelina Jolie's and Jennifer Hudson's scenes were in their Oscar-winning vehicles. The movie arguably supports him more than the reverse. Cooper is on screen bunches but, like most of his Hustle castmates, acts an over-the-top character in a strong way and still doesn't seem like he's showboating, or depriving his co-stars of the cues they need to enrich their work.  He and Abdi are the Bests in Show in their movies without ever looking like they realize it.  Fassbender, like Leto, is cleverly playing a thesis that's been posited in the script in place of a real character: in one case, the AIDS patient with a wavering commitment to living, in the other, a slave-owner as one-man multiplex of grimy perversions.  Hill is ...uh, very good in 21 Jump Street and Moneyball.  I have no idea who he's playing in Wolf of Wall Street, no matter how hard he's working to keep the badminton birdie from landing. Will: Leto  Should: Cooper  Hey, Where's James Gandolfini, who didn't need an iota of gratuitous sentiment to merit a nod for his middle-aged romantic, so tentative yet brave, so relaxed yet staunchly principled.  Plus the usual surfeit of guys who got no promotion (Ben Mendelsohn in Place Beyond the Pines, David Oyelowo in The Butler) or who indulged in the sin of acting in non-American films (Yiftach Klein in Fill the Void, Peter Kazungu in Paradise: Love).

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Oscar Nomination Predictions 2013

I'm demented with fever and fatigue, so forgive the lack of commentary, but here are my best guesses and, in some cases, my willfully reckless counter-intuitions regarding tomorrow's Oscar nominations:

Picture: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Saving Mr. Banks, The Wolf of Wall Street
runners-up: Philomena, Her

Director: Coens (Llewyn), Cuaron (Gravity), Greengrass (Captain), McQueen (12 Years), Russell (Hustle)
runners-up: Payne, Scorsese, Vallée, Jonze

Actress: Adams (Hustle), Blanchett (Jasmine), Bullock (Gravity), Dench (Philomena), Thompson (Banks)
runners-up: Streep, Exarchopoulos
toyed with: dropping Bullock for Streep, but couldn't commit

Actor: Dern (Nebraska), DiCaprio (Wolf), Ejiofor (12 Years), Isaac (Llewyn), McConaughey (Dallas)
runners-up: Hanks, Redford
toyed with: being less optimistic about Isaac, but I can't help it
how 'bout that: Bale (Hustle)

Supporting Actress: Hawkins (Jasmine), Lawrence (Hustle), Nyong'o (12 Years), Squibb (Nebraska), Winfrey (Butler)
runners-up: Roberts

Supporting Actor: Abdi (Captain), Brühl (Rush), Cooper (Hustle), Fassbender (12 Years), Leto (Dallas)
runners-up: Gandolfini, Hill, Forte
toyed with: promoting my beloved Gandolfini, but I don't want to jinx it

Original Screenplay: American Hustle, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska
runners-up: Blue Jasmine, Enough Said

Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave, Before Midnight, Blue Is the Warmest Color, Captain Phillips, Philomena
runners-up: August: Osage County, The Wolf of Wall Street

Foreign Film: The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium), The Grandmaster (Hong Kong), The Great Beauty (Italy), The Hunt (Denmark), Omar (Palestine)
runners-up: The Notebook, Two Lives, The Missing Picture, Iron Picker

Animated Feature: The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest & Celestine, Frozen, The Wind Rises
runners-up: Monsters University

Documentary: Blackfish, Dirty Wars, God Loves Uganda, The Square, Stories We Tell
runners-up: Which Way..., The Act of Killing, 20 Feet from Stardom, Tim's Vermeer
how 'bout that: Cutie and the Boxer

Cinematography: 12 Years a Slave !!!, The Grandmaster, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Prisoners
runners-up: Nebraska, The Great Beauty, Captain Phillips, The Great Gatsby

Film Editing: American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Gravity, Rush, The Wolf of Wall Street
runners-up: 12 Years a Slave
toyed with: including the obvious front-runner, but I suspect Slave will stumble in a few races
how 'bout that: Dallas Buyers Club

Production Design: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Gravity, The Great Gatsby, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
runners-up: The Invisible Woman, The Grandmaster, Inside Llewyn Davis
how 'bout that: Her

Costume Design: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, The Great Gatsby, The Invisible Woman, Saving Mr. Banks
runners-up: The Lone Ranger, The Grandmaster, The Great Beauty, Inside Llewyn Davis

Makeup & Hairstyling: American Hustle !!!, Dallas Buyers Club, The Lone Ranger
runners-up: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, The Great Gatsby

Original Score: 12 Years a Slave, All Is Lost, The Book Thief, Gravity, Saving Mr. Banks
runners-up: Captain Phillips, Philomena, The Great Gatsby, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
how 'bout that: Her

Original Song: "Let It Go" (Frozen), "The Moon Song" (Her), "Ordinary Love" (Mandela), "So You Know What It's Like" (Short Term 12), "Young and Beautiful" (Gatsby)
runners-up: "Amen" (All Is Lost), "In the Middle of the Night" (Butler), "Sweeter Than Fiction" (One Chance), "Last Mile Home" (Osage), "My Lord Sunshine (Sunrise)" (12 Years), "Atlas" (Hunger Games), "Stay Alive" (Mitty), "Rise Up" (Epic)
how 'bout that: "Alone Yet Not Alone" (Alone), "Happy" (Despicable)

Sound Mixing: 12 Years a Slave, Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Great Gatsby, Rush
runners-up: Frozen, Inside Llewyn Davis, All Is Lost, World War Z, The Wolf of Wall Street, Iron Man 3, The Hobbit
how 'bout that: Lone Survivor

Sound Editing: All is Lost, Captain Phillips, Gravity, Lone Survivor, Rush
runners-up: World War Z, Iron Man 3, The Hobbit, 12 Years a Slave, The Great Gatsby

Visual Effects: Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Iron Man 3, Pacific Rim, Star Trek Into Darkness
runners-up: The Lone Ranger, Oblivion, World War Z

2012 Oscar Nomination Predictions (Updated, Again)

Not sure how much time I'll have to complete these before Five Dark Thirty PST tomorrow, but I'm at least going to scratch out my guesses in a few categories when I've got the time over the course of today.  I haven't read anybody else's pieces in this area, so I have only a little idea where I'm on or off prognosticators' consensus.  I have at least kept up with the critics' awards, the Globe and various Guild rosters, and the BAFTA announcement.  As of today, then, I'm inclining toward...

PICTURE: Amour, Argo, Life, Lincoln, Misérables, Moonrise, Silver, Zero
Runners Up: Beasts, Django, Master
I realize I'm being optimistic about Haneke and Anderson. Feeling shaky about Silver, but that may have a lot to do with my own befuddled response to the film, and to its absolutely bizarre release strategy, though I can't imagine that has prevented Academy voters from seeing it.

DIRECTOR: Affleck, Bigelow, Hooper, Lee, Spielberg
In other words, the DGA list
Runners up: Haneke, Russell, Anderson (Wes) ...and Zeitlin!

ACTRESS: ✓ Chastain, Lawrence, Riva, Wallis, Watts
Runners up: Mirren, Cotillard, Weisz, in that order, probably replacing Wallis, Watts in that order

ACTOR: Day-Lewis, Hawkes, Jackman, Phoenix, Washington
Runners up: Cooper, Trintignant
These are very different kinds of runners-up, one that lots of people expect to see (but I'm getting the "too soon" vibe on Cooper, and not enough traction) and one that nobody expects to see.  I think if SPC had brought Amour out sooner—which to my eyes would have made sense on a lot of levels—Trintignant could have landed that Fishburne-type nod where voters belatedly connecting with one ballyhooed performance discover two geniuses for the price of one.  Maybe it'll still happen?  Everyone here except for Day-Lewis feels like they peaked kind of early... one problem Trintignant doesn't have.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Dowd, Field, Hathaway, Hunt, Smith
Runners up: Adams, Kidman ...and Weaver!
I only half-heartedly consider Kidman a runner-up, though I hope she makes it. Conversely, I can't believe I'm not picking Adams, especially with reasons to feel shaky about Dowd, Hunt, and Smith, but this is where I am. Don't hate me if I change my mind before dawn.

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Arkin, Hoffman, Jones, McConaughey, Redmayne
Runners up: De Niro, DiCaprio, Bardem, Jackson, Waltz
Of the four candidates I have heard described as "locks," I find that designation hardest to reconcile with De Niro's performance or his standing in the precursors.  I'm probably being perverse in imagining that two of the possible sixth-spotters will both qualify, and that Django will totally wipe out, but there you are.  I'm perverse.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Amour, Django, Master, Moonrise, Zero
Runners up: Middle of Nowhere, which I'd absolutely love to see, or Intouchables or Looper ...or, uh, Flight!

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Argo, Bernie, Lincoln, The Sessions, Silver Linings Playbook
Runners up: Beasts, Life of Pi, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Les Misérables
I can feel my own shittiness at calling this race, but Bernie has such loyal, tickled admirers and feels very much like a Writers Branch movie, which Beasts, Pi, and Misérables don't, at least not to me. Perks would have an even stronger shot if it had received the wider platform I still think it could have merited. Still, any of these four could appear on the roster and I wouldn't be surprised at all.

FOREIGN FILM: Amour, Intouchables, Kon-Tiki, No, A Royal Affair
Runners Up: War Witch, Beyond the Hills, Sister, The Deep For once, a really rich semifinalist list. My favorites so far are Sister and War Witch, and I'd love to see one make the list. A Royal Affair is the only one of my predicted five I have seen, and it's a good one that actually improves as it goes. Not as big a fan of the Mungiu, but it'd be nice to see Romania finally included.

By the way, my absolute biggest cheer of the morning will happen if the brilliant Eagleman Stag gets nominated for Animated Short. I helped give a best-of-fest juried prize to that movie in Chicago last year, met the filmmaker, and had an amazing conversation with him about the work. Go go go, Mikey Please!

This might be it, but I'll add more if I can...

I'll Take a Final Stab at This

Jan. 11: Oscar ballots are due shortly. The BFCA awards (a ridiculous enterprise, which I disdain) and Golden Globe awards (a ridiculous enterprise, which I treasure) will both play out by the end of the weekend. Plenty of signs still await us as to who might win, but I don't think we'll get any more tips about the nominations. So, I'm fixing my predictions now, albeit leaving them to acting, directing, and Best Picture for the moment. I will expand to the other categories before Jan 24 and announce the update on Twitter. (You're following, right?)

By the way, this year's Oscars are going to be awesome, because Emmanuel Lubezki is finally going to win, and for a Malick film! Anything that annoys you about the awards trudge season in the next six weeks, just think about that.

Jan. 18: Predictions in below-the-line categories added.
Jan. 23: Last switch, Beginners for 50/50 in Original Screenplay.

PICTURE: The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse Missed: Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close 8/9!
Anything Else to Consider? Bridesmaids was my closest runner-up in my previous attempt at predicting, because the people who love it, and there are a lot of them, may well rank it first: for affection-based reasons and from a temptation to endorse career opportunities for women, especially in comedy. It's harder to leave out than it was last time, just as it's harder to leave in The Tree of Life and War Horse, but I'm sticking with the same line-up. The Malick has even more passionate devotees than The Thin Red Line did in 1998, and War Horse feels like a rallying-point for whomever pushed, you know, The Cider House Rules and The Green Mile across the line. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and, even more so, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo have suggested estimable fan bases and hit audiences at a good time for nomination recognition. They are feasible nominees, but I'm still not feeling it. Still no idea what to think about Ides of March.

DIRECTOR: Woody Allen, Michel Hazanavicius, Bennett Miller, Alexander Payne, Martin Scorsese 4/5
Anything Else to Consider? I have dropped Terrence Malick for Allen, whose nods from the Globes and the DGA bode well, as does the fact that his previous nomination was even longer ago than Malick's. I still desperately want to go out on a limb for Asghar Farhadi, especially as I now hear Separation screeners went out really early: great move, Sony Pictures Classics! I imagine, though, that Miller will draw huge support not just from Moneyball's many, many fans but from people who admire him for salvaging the project from abortive ruin, and in such an easy-breathing, audience-stroking way that still emits credible personality. If they went for him for Capote, which was colder and made a tenth as much money, why wouldn't they here? Meanwhile, Payne movies have repeatedly done less well with AMPAS than in precursor season—no script nod for About Schmidt, no Giamatti for Sideways—so I'm hoping that he's vulnerable. Even though I'm sure he isn't.

ACTRESS: Glenn Close, Viola Davis, Meryl Streep, Kristen Wiig, Michelle Williams 4/5
Anything Else to Consider? After the frontrunner trifecta, the last two spots go to some combo of Close, Rooney Mara, Tilda Swinton, and Wiig: three women who went to bat for long periods and in multiple capacities to get their movies made, plus Mara, the quasi-overnight sensation. Mara's movie dropped at the right moment, and her reviews are even stronger than the film's. Perceptions that she's been prickly or presumptuous in interviews might matter more, and without the extra force of a "Scrappy Novice Pulls Herself Up By Her Bootstraps" narrative that served Lawrence, Sidibe, et al, she looks a bit like a 1%er in a big fat studio movie. Surely more tempting to AMPAS, which is full of people in Close's age-range, to reward 30 years of project development and general fondness for an un-Oscared vet, even if they don't watch or like the movie? And easier, I think, to thank Wiig for writing herself a sensational vehicle (boy, do they love actors who do that) and for making something so profitable that a lot of other people might get more, better, and/or funnier work because of it. Between popping in a Bridesmaids screener or a Kevin screener, what would Ernest Borgnine do? Or Sid Ganis? Or indeed, Rooney Mara? (Okay, Rooney would watch both.) Or, having run out of time to watch all your screeners, you vote for the funny, bank-making bridesmaid and the five-time Oscar bridesmaid, right?

ACTOR: George Clooney, Jean Dujardin, Gary Oldman, Brad Pitt, Michael Shannon 4/5
Anything Else to Consider? I'm dropping Fassbender for Oldman. Shame is really divisive and a harder movie to get people to watch, surely, than Tinker Tailor, though both feel like modest hits in proportion to their scales. Plus, "let's make Fassbender happen" and "let's act like we've always supported Oldman" seem about even to me as narrative hooks. Shannon's hook still seems even better to me: an open-ended, all-American indie that invites you to participate in it, especially at the end, whereas the other two sort of expect you to be fine with feeling frozen out. Demián Bichir's SAG nod doesn't seem to have produced a lot of buzz, and Gosling's vehicles didn't land in a "Best Actor" way, even if he owned the year. Rescidivist, old-guard Clint-worship makes DiCaprio the only other spoiler I'm really wondering about at this point.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Bérénice Bejo, Jessica Chastain, Melissa McCarthy, Octavia Spencer, Shailene Woodley 4/5
Anything Else to Consider? I'm dropping Janet McTeer for Chastain, in a very competitive heat. Almost dropped McCarthy instead, but felt odd projecting Bridesmaids to gain heat elsewhere and lose it where it's actually had some. (Then again, only some.) With six more or less neck-and-neck performances, I'm assuming that the best-loved movies have the edge. Does anyone like Albert Nobbs as much as the Help, Descendants, Bridesmaids, and Artist factions love those show-ponies?

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Kenneth Branagh, Albert Brooks, Jonah Hill, Brad Pitt, Christopher Plummer 3/5
Anything Else to Consider? Short of Patton Oswalt or mayyyybe Ben Kingsley elbowing in on Jonah Hill's action, I just don't see a lot of movement in this race. If you don't live in New York or Los Angeles, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close still feels more like a myth, and a widely-loathed myth at that, than a movie. Obviously, those two markets are the only ones that really affect Oscar-nod outcomes, but even there, does anyone still think Max Von Sydow is happening? I wish Mortensen felt more likely, but people aren't talking much about the movie, even though it's holding up as best as can be expected (though no more than that) given the currently glutted market. Caesar and Uggie can stroke each other's fur consolingly in the corner. I know, I know, chimps have hair, not fur. Whatever. A commenter reminded me about Nick Nolte, whom I admit I'd forgotten about, and he has definitely been pulling down some nominations. But if I liked Warrior and I'm an awards geek, and I forgot about him, what does that say about the heat around his performance?

Predictions always look like one-third a plausible Oscar scenario, one-third a reflection of what idiosyncratically resonated with you about past Oscar rosters, and one-third what you're loving or hating at the moment you predict. I'm sure this is the case here.

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CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, The Tree of Life, War Horse 5/5
Anything Else to Consider? Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy feels very competitive, and Harry Potter, Drive, J. Edgar, and Moneyball are not out of the question.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Bill Cunningham New York, Hell and Back Again, If a Tree Falls, Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, Project Nim Missed: Pina 3/5
Anything Else to Consider? I've only seen half of those, so I'm picking a little blindly, with We Were Here, Buck, Undefeated, Jane's Journey, and others posing serious opposition.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Artist, Beginners, Bridesmaids, Midnight in Paris, A Separation 4/5
Anything Else to Consider? This race feels as crammed with full-tilt possibilities as it did in 2008, when Woody Allen got blanked for Courtney Hunt and Martin McDonagh. I'd put 50/50, Take Shelter, and Win Win as the most likely spoilers, with Margin Call and Margaret after that, and Young Adult still hanging on.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Descendants, The Help, The Ides of March, Moneyball, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy 4/5
Anything Else to Consider? I can't figure out whether Hugo or The Help will lose a spot to Ides of March; possibly neither of them will, but Ides just seems so Writer's Branch-friendly and the two Hs don't. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and War Horse pose outside threats, but does anything else?

ANIMATED FEATURE: The Adventures of Tintin, Arthur Christmas, Cars 2, Chico & Rita, Rango Missed: A Cat in Paris, Kung Fu Panda 2 2/5
Anything Else to Consider? Puss in Boots probably makes more sense than the more outré Chico pick, but especially when the overall field has proved uninspired, this branch has proved susceptible to Secret of Kells-style surprises of late. Winnie the Pooh, despite great reviews, and Rio, despite great box-office, haven't had any luck on these rosters so far this season.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Footnote, In Darkness, Pina, A Separation, SuperClásico 3/5
Anything Else to Consider? Monsieur Lazhar and Seediq Bale feel like strong plays, and people who have seen Bullhead seem quite enamored. I'm not even sure I can work out which of the three semi-finalists are the Executive Committee's pet causes. Omar Killed Me feels like the straggler to me, but after Zem's multi-faceted career, I'm pleased for him.

FILM EDITING: The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, Moneyball 4/5
Anything Else to Consider? War Horse and Tinker Tailor are the most considerable threats outside this list, I think, but fondness for the former seems mo muffled, and the confusing plotting of the latter is surely down to the editing as much as anything. And how many quick inserts of portentous-looking faces do we need? Best Picture heavyweights should always be considered here, and the Descendants team is pushing hard for a nod. Tintin's action set-pieces might impress, too, though even in this field, animation and motion-capture have some high hurdles to clear. I'd have thought well-liked action blockbusters like Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Super 8, or Harry Potter might stake a claim here, but the A.C.E. ballot suggested no enthusiasm. They didn't for Ghost Protocol, either, but after the swell box-office and the dazzling set-pieces, can it really be ignored?

ART DIRECTION: The Artist, Harry Potter, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, War Horse Missed: Midnight in Paris 4/5
Anything Else to Consider? Note that, without trying, I am duplicating the BAFTA list. I realize the Guild conspicuously omitted War Horse from their own nominees, and maybe I ought to take the hint, but is Spielberg really to be overlooked for the Elizabethan dioramas of Roland Emmerich's team in Anonymous, or the cool appeal of Dragon Tattoo, or the Disneyfied South of The Help? Possibly, but hard to believe.

COSTUME DESIGN: Anonymous, The Artist, Hugo, Jane Eyre, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy 4/5
Anything Else to Consider? My Week with Marilyn might get by on period setting alone, and for padding out Michelle Williams' figure, even though the costumes are nothing special. Troy Syndrome could always yield a crazy-good nod (Immortals?), a crazy-dumb one (Pirates?), or just a crazy one (W.E.?). Thor might be the most Troy-ish contender of the lot, and the Guild went for it. I thought A Dangerous Method had some of the year's best tailoring and most character-specific designs, but Oscar has never once sprung for Denise Cronenberg. J.Edgar's not impossible, but has its fan base, if it ever existed, withstood a sparkless season?

ORIGINAL SCORE: The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, War Horse Missed: Tintin 4/5
Anything Else to Consider? Once again, turns out I'm repeating BAFTA. First, if The Descendants qualifies here, please somebody swing by and check my pulse.

SOUND MIXING: Hugo, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Super 8, Transformers 2/5
Anything Else to Consider? I hesitate at ignoring The Artist and at suppressing my own desires to see Hanna in the mix (heh heh). War Horse, Tintin, Fast Five, Harry Potter, and Rise of the Planet of the Apes must be tempting choices for the pop crowd. Tinker Tailor and Rango certainly deserve consideration for fans of subtlety and idiosyncrasy. Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will draw at least a few votes from both factions. Moneyball scored a nod from the Cinema Audio Society; I can't work out why, but I'm glad to hear support for the movie is broad, even in unexpected quarters.

SOUND EDITING: The Adventures of Tintin, Fast Five, Hugo, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Super 8 Missed: Drive, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo 1/5!
Anything Else to Consider? I'm sure I'm over-estimating the differences between the Sound Mixing and Sound Editing rosters, although the nominators in the Sound branch have been refreshingly willing to do this of late. Animation tends to do well here, and while I'm rooting for Rango to get the nod, Tintin is fresher in the mind. All those car noises in Fast Five and chimp-screeches in Apes seem tough to avoid; The Artist, for its belated but witty sound elements, and Hugo, given its loudness and density, could lend the category some Best Picture prestige. M:I-4, Pirates, Transformers, Harry Potter, Super 8, and War Horse will make major pushes to unseat one, two, three, or more of these picks. I frankly won't be stunned if I'm wrong across the board.

MAKEUP: Anonymous, Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life, The Iron Lady 1/3
Anything Else to Consider? Betting against the Best Picture front-runner is probably folly, and betting against two of them is probably... follier? I think The Artist has a much better shot than Hugo. In fact, I'd be less surprised to see Harry Potter or Albert Nobbs than Hugo. Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life is the hardest semi-finalist to gauge, since AMPAS has opted more than once for this kind of off-the-radar title when the work is good enough.

VISUAL EFFECTS: Captain America, Harry Potter, Hugo, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Transformers 4/5
Anything Else to Consider? The branch has tipped five other semi-finalists (M:I-4, Pirates, Real Steel, Tree of Life, and X-Men). The Tom Cruise box-office juggernaut could easily crash the front-runners' party. I hate leaving off the engrossing cosmogony and nanobiology in The Tree of Life, but it's the sort of Visual Effects work critics and Oscar nods love to endorse and Oscar never does. The other three I'm not particularly worried about, though not having seen Real Steel or Pirates, which made a lot of people a lot of money, I'm perhaps being cavalier.

ORIGINAL SONG: "The Keeper," "Lay Your Head Down," "Life's a Happy Song," "The Living Proof," "Man or Muppet" Missed: "Real in Rio" 1/2
Anything Else to Consider? The In the Land of Blood and Honey track? The novelty number from Captain America? The Elton John drivel? I don't enjoy thinking about this absurdly capricious category.

I'll Take One Stab at This

Since Oscar ballots went out today, and I have a hard time imagining anything else transpiring in the coming weeks that will significantly change what we know already in the Picture, Director, and Acting races, I'm going to pony up to the bet-placing table and prognosticate. One update to follow in January to incorporate more of the non-celebrity fields. (I hate calling them the "technical categories." Emmanuel Lubezki and Skip Lievsay and Sandy Powell are artists, people. You know it, and I know it.)

Also, read this, which is lovely, funny, and beautifully thought-out, and way more valuable than what I'm doing here.

PICTURE: The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse
Anything Else to Consider? Bridesmaids, because people genuinely love it and it might have helped green-light some more projects, and A Separation, if it pulls off the kind of below-the-radar City of God surge of which it seems capable (though of course I still doubt this, especially up top)

DIRECTOR: Michel Hazanavicius, Terrence Malick, Bennett Miller, Alexander Payne, Martin Scorsese
Anything Else to Consider? I'm wondering if emeritus contenders Woody Allen or Steven Spielberg can elbow one of these guys aside, but otherwise, I think that's your roster. Again, maybe Asghar Farhadi if Separation is getting out to more people than we realize.

ACTRESS: Glenn Close, Viola Davis, Rooney Mara, Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams
Anything Else to Consider? I think Tilda's going to lose her standard spot in the precursors to the same things that brought down Angelina Jolie for A Mighty Heart: film's too small, and it's not a screener a lot of folks are just dying to pop in. If there's a seventh factor, I guess it's Charlize Theron, but I really don't think so.

ACTOR: George Clooney, Jean Dujardin, Michael Fassbender, Brad Pitt, Michael Shannon
Anything Else to Consider? Unlike Kevin, I think Take Shelter will draw eyeballs; everything from Chastain Curiosity to Boardwalk Empire to a full year of strong reviews will help. Leonardo DiCaprio, Demián Bichir, Gary Oldman, Ryan Gosling (for Drive), and even Woody Harrelson are all possible threats, in about that order. Crowded race.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Bérénice Bejo, Melissa McCarthy, Janet McTeer, Octavia Spencer, Shailene Woodley
Anything Else to Consider? Can you survive vote-splitting with your own projects and vote-splitting with your scene partner? I'd like to see Chastain here, but since someone has to go, I'm guessing it's her. Redgrave's Volumnia still gnashing her war-monger's teeth in the corner, where she's been most of the season.

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Kenneth Branagh, Albert Brooks, Jonah Hill, Brad Pitt, Christopher Plummer
Anything Else to Consider? The longest list of possibilities, to include Max von Sydow, Viggo Mortensen, Nick Nolte, Ben Kingsley, Patton Oswalt, Andy Serkis, and Armie Hammer. Yet Plummer remains, for me, the most heavily fore-ordained winner of the night. Exciting that all five of the other races seem genuinely open as of Christmas!

(Again, one update and additional categories to follow in January)

You've Got Unfinished Business, Sweetie

If I were a paid blogger, Smurf would have had to take a hit on me weeks ago. So much unfinished business. I know the Best of 2010 blog entries stalled out three weeks ago with Lourdes and Greenberg, and I don't see when I'll be able to write eight more, so with a profound sense of anticlimax, I'm posting my whole, unannotated Top Ten of 2010. What you'll see if you click the link is the Top Ten among U.S. commercial releases, but another link in the same frame will reveal a Top Ten among world premieres, with very little overlap given how many of my favorite releases last year were holdovers from festivals in 2008 and 2009.

Thanks to everyone who responded to the Annette Bening and Jennifer Lawrence pieces. I'm nearly done with a Natalie Portman retrospective, so I'm not nervous about encouraging you to keep your eyes open for that. I also got caught up on the back catalogs of Michelle Williams and of current Supporting nominees Helena Bonham Carter and Melissa Leo, who have been Actress nominees in the past. When I'll generate those write-ups I can't quite say. There's also, of course, Nicole Kidman, whose back catalog I basically already knew, though I did investigate her first Globe-nominated turn in Billy Bathgate. When I'll look into Practical Magic, The Peacemaker, and The Invasion ...it's even harder to say.

On the subject of Oscar commentary and predictions, I've been popping up at everyone's party except my own: this article I wrote with Nathaniel R. for Fandor's Keyframe Blog about the current Best Picture race, and Nathaniel's own Oscar-obsessed podcasts with Joe Reid of Low Resolution and Katey Rich of Cinema Blend. If you haven't read, please read! If you haven't listened, please listen!

As for proper predictions, I feel disinclined, but not for the reasons of profound annoyance I experienced last year. This time, I feel as though a lot of the winners seem pretty strongly fore-ordained: King's Speech, Firth, Portman, Deakins, Seidler, Sorkin, Wall & Baxter, Toy Story 3, and the Inception teams in Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, and despite a weaker case made by the actual film, Sound Editing. Other races feel nearly as sealed up for Fincher, Bale, and Atwood—although, just for shits and giggles, and because Winter's Bone (unlike, say, Animal Kingdom) is not a screener that I think AMPAS voters can feel okay about ignoring, and everyone seems to love John Hawkes, I'm going out on a limb to predict him over Bale, whose persona and performance are a bit more divisive, or Rush, who's already won. Please know that I'm as aware as you are that I'm probably wrong. But I like being wrong.

In the only categories left, I truly have no idea who will win, and for me personally, the least joyous aspect of current Oscar seasons is having so many Guild prizes, precursors, and voter interviews available, by which one could try to see the future. I miss the sense of joy I used to feel in predicting, but I miss the sense of surprise on Oscar night even more, and I'm not the sort of person who reads the end of novels before I finish the middle. So it's with a gleeful lack of credibility or information that I posit the following:

Supporting Actress: Leo, unless Weaver, unless Bonham Carter
Supporting Actor: Hawkes, unless Bale, unless Rush
Art Direction: King's Speech, unless Alice
Original Score: King's Speech, unless Social Network, unless Inception
Foreign Film: In a Better World, unless Biutiful, unless Outside the Law
Documentary Feature: Waste Land, unless Inside Job, unless Restrepo, unless Exit
Makeup: Way Back, unless Wolf Man, unless Barney's Version
Original Song: "I See the Light," unless "We Belong Together," unless "If I Rise"

I'll have one more bit of catch-up work to rush through this weekend, naming my favorites in the Oscar categories, but you'll need to give me a day on that. Otherwise, happy Oscaring, I hope you've had as much fun as I have cruising various cocktail recipes called "the Black Swan" online, and if you live in Chicago, go see Poetry at the Music Box this weekend! Based on Oasis and Secret Sunshine, and Cannes, and friend reports, it seems like it can't miss.

Final Oscar Nom Predix

I took a stab at these three months ago, and now I'm chiming in one last time, sans commentary. I will say this: I'm going to be miffed if Debra Granik's ship comes in among the Best Director nominees, only because I went out on a limb with that early in the fall, and on Nathaniel's podcast a few weeks ago, and I don't want a repeat of Almodóvar 2002, where I get the hunch before most folks, only to give it up right before the "surprise" comes to fruition. But people sure do like that stuttering king. And I'm banking on them loving that fighter, with Wahlberg upsetting Franco and Bardem, and on at least a little bit of cool settling over the Black Swan-for-everything blitz. (Screenplay? Really? No matter how many times he says, "But I'm not only casting ze White Swan"?)

These predictions tally to 11 for Inception, 9 for The King's Speech, 8 apiece for The Fighter and The Social Network, and 6 apiece for Black Swan, Toy Story 3, and True Grit. 5 for the dread Alice, and 4 for 127 Hours, despite my decisions to shut it out from the Picture, Director, Actor, and Screenplay fields. We'll see if it gets out from underneath that rock.

BEST PICTURE Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, The Town, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone
Alternates: The Ghost Writer, 127 Hours, Another Year

BEST DIRECTOR Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), David Fincher (The Social Network), Tom Hooper (The King's Speech), Christopher Nolan (Inception), David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Alternates: Debra Granik (Winter's Bone), Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit), Roman Polanski (The Ghost Writer), Mike Leigh (Another Year)

BEST ACTRESS Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone), Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Alternates: Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), Noomi Rapace (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Lesley Manville (Another Year), Tilda Swinton (I Am Love), Hilary Swank (Conviction)

BEST ACTOR Robert Duvall (Get Low), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), Colin Firth (The King's Speech), Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine), Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)
Alternates: James Franco (127 Hours), Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Amy Adams (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech), Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Alternates: Mila Kunis (Black Swan), Lesley Manville (Another Year), Barbara Hershey (Black Swan)



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Christian Bale (The Fighter), John Hawkes (Winter's Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
Alternates: Andrew Garfield (The Social Network), Sam Rockwell (Conviction)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech
Alternates: Black Swan, Animal Kingdom, Blue Valentine, Greenberg

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Ghost Writer, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone
Alternates: The Town, 127 Hours, Rabbit Hole, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 127 Hours, Black Swan, Inception, The Social Network, True Grit
Alternates: The King's Speech, Harry Potter..., Shutter Island, The Way Back

BEST FILM EDITING 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Social Network
Alternates: The King's Speech, True Grit, Toy Story 3

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM Biutiful, In a Better World, Incendies, Life, Above All, Outside the Law
Alternates: Simple Simon, Dogtooth, Even the Rain, Confessions



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE How to Train Your Dragon, Tangled, Toy Story 3
Alternates: The Illusionist, Despicable Me, My Dog Tulip

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Inside Job, Restrepo, This Way of Life, Waiting for 'Superman', Waste Land
Alternates: Precious Life, Exit Through the Gift Shop, The Tillman Story, Gasland

BEST ART DIRECTION Alice in Wonderland, Inception, The King's Speech, The Social Network, True Grit
Alternates: Shutter Island, Black Swan, Harry Potter...

BEST COSTUME DESIGN Alice in Wonderland, Burlesque, Inception, The King's Speech, True Grit
Alternates: Robin Hood, Made in Dagenham, Black Swan, The Tempest, TRON: Legacy



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Alice in Wonderland, The Ghost Writer, Inception, The King's Speech, The Social Network
Alternates: Never Let Me Go, 127 Hours, How to Train Your Dragon, Let Me In, Robin Hood, Winter's Bone

BEST SOUND MIXING 127 Hours, Black Swan, Inception, Toy Story 3, Unstoppable
Alternates: TRON: Legacy, The Social Network, Shutter Island, True Grit, Burlesque, Salt

BEST SOUND EDITING 127 Hours, Inception, Toy Story 3, TRON: Legacy, Unstoppable
Alternates: Salt, Black Swan, The Social Network, Shutter Island

BEST ORIGINAL SONG "I See the Light," "Me and Tennessee," "Shine," "We Belong Together," "You Haven't See the Last of Me"
Alternates: "If I Rise," "Little One," "Bound to You," "There's a Place for Us," "Better Days"

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter..., Inception, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, TRON: Legacy
Alternates: Hereafter (my last change!), Iron Man 2

BEST MAKEUP Alice in Wonderland, The Way Back, The Wolf Man
Alternates: True Grit, Jonah Hex, The Fighter, Barney's Version

Cannes Winner Realities

As I believe I indicated before proceeding into a massive list of errors, I am awesome at forecasting the prize winners at Cannes. You're probably reeling from my uncanny knack for prognostication. Granted, if you lop off my two top predictions for the Palme, neither of which scored a single thing, nor did the one film that I predicted to cop two awards, I cited most of the right movies but in the wrong contexts: my "this is too obvious" canards about The White Ribbon and A Prophet translated into denials of the obvious, and the jury got excited about Wild Grass, Fish Tank, and Kinatay. I always wish the Technical Grand Prize were compulsory, and I haven't heard anything about the Ecumenical Jury's pick, which is usually interesting—all the more so since I just yesterday saw Adoration, their '08 selection—but all in all, this slate of prize winners (indexed in greater depth here) promises some provocative nights at the movies in the next, oh, 18 months or so that it will take American distributors to get them all into theaters, if even then. Hold out hope.

(Note: The awards don't do much to change my relative enthusiasm for the Competition titles, though I do have to credit Isabelle Huppert with even more chutzpah than I thought she might have. Not for her, to go out of her way to avoid giving top prizes to famed collaborators or to French countrymen. Screw how it "looks"—and one must admit, the two best-reviewed Competition movies scored the two top prizes, even though lots of the other awards defied critical consensus in various ways.)

Cannes Winner Predictions

I'll be proven wrong in just a matter of hours, but why not take a stab? Especially after blowing my calls in almost every category last year.

PALME D'OR Vincere, dir. Marco Bellocchio
(alt. The Time that Remains, dir. Elia Suleiman)
I'm guessing that The White Ribbon would look too obviously like Huppert/Haneke nepotism and that A Prophet could have that Gomorrah problem of being too obviously the "front-runner." Other possibilities for the Palme or the Grand Jury or Jury prizes: Fish Tank, Wild Grass, Kinatay, Enter the Void, and that delicious cherry-bomb Antichrist.

BEST DIRECTOR Alain Resnais, Wild Grass
(alt. Jacques Audiard, A Prophet)
Often a hideout for the filmmaker people expected to get the Palme, so Bellocchio could get in here if Vincere isn't the choice for the top prize; odds go a bit out on Haneke, who's won this before, and on Suleiman

BEST ACTRESS Katie Jarvis, Fish Tank
(alt. Giovanna Mezzogiorno, Vincere)

BEST ACTOR François Cluzet, À l'origine
(alt. Tahar Rahim or Niels Arestrup, A Prophet)
Dussolier for the Resnais film or Suleiman starring for himself aren't bad options, especially if the films' chances are scuppered elsewhere

BEST SCREENPLAY À l'origine
(alt. The White Ribbon)
It seems insane to predict two prizes for a barely heralded film, but much weirder things have happened at Cannes; the Almodóvar, Suleiman, Campion, and Bellocchio could easily figure here.

TECHNICAL GRAND PRIZE Bright Star, Greig Fisher

SOME KIND OF SPECIAL JURY PRIZE FOR MAD AUDACITY Antichrist

Meanwhile, here are the Main Competition films in roughly the order in which I'm eager to see them, with links to the IFC blog entries about reactions to each film: Bright Star, Antichrist, Enter the Void, Fish Tank, A Prophet, Wild Grass, The White Ribbon, Face/Visage, Kinatay, Vincere, Broken Embraces, Spring Fever, Inglourious Basterds, The Time that Remains, In the Beginning/À l'origine, Map of the Sounds of Tokyo, Thirst, Looking for Eric, Taking Woodstock, and Vengeance... although non-Competition screenings like Police, Adjective, Polytechnique, Hierro, My Neighbor, My Killer, Tales from the Golden Age, A Brand New Life, I Killed My Mother, and especially Dogtooth, Precious, and To Die Like a Man apparently outclass most of the Palme contenders.

Final Oscar Nom Predix, NFP-Style

When I was a child, I was very good at prognosticating these. Then I grew up, but instead of putting away childish things, like Paul does in the Bible, I simply got worse at them. But I keep trying. I am doing my damnedest to hang onto childish things, but we'll see if I've still got any gift at all.

BEST PICTURE
I'm guessing The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Slumdog Millionaire, WALL•E
Edging out Milk
Unless it's to be The Reader, The Wrestler, Revolutionary Road

BEST DIRECTOR
I'm guessing Darren Aronofsky (Wrestler), Danny Boyle (Slumdog), David Fincher (Benjamin), Christopher Nolan (Dark Knight), Gus Van Sant (Milk)
Edging out Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
Unless it's to be Stephen Daldry (Reader), Allen (Vicky), Stanton (WALL•E), Mendes (Road)

BEST ACTRESS
I'm guessing Anne Hathaway (Rachel), Sally Hawkins (Happy), Angelina Jolie (Changeling), Meryl Streep (Doubt), Kate Winslet (Road; but for Reader)
Edging out Michelle Williams (Wendy and Lucy)
Unless it's to be Melissa Leo (Frozen River), Kristin Scott Thomas (I've Loved), Cate Blanchett (Benjamin)

BEST ACTOR
I'm guessing Clint Eastwood (Torino), Richard Jenkins (Visitor), Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon), Sean Penn (Milk), Mickey Rourke (Wrestler)
Edging out Brad Pitt (Benjamin)
Unless it's to be Leonardo DiCaprio (Road), Dev Patel (Slumdog)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I'm guessing Adams (Doubt), Cruz (Vicky), Davis (Doubt), Tomei (Wrestler), Winslet (Reader)
Edging out Henson (Benjamin)
Unless it's to be DeWitt (Rachel)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I'm guessing Brolin (Milk), Downey (Tropic), Hoffman (Doubt), Ledger (Dark Knight), Pitt (Burn)
Edging out Patel (Slumdog)
Unless it's to be Kapoor (Slumdog), Marsan (Happy), Shannon (Road), Franco (Milk), Irwin (Rachel), Fiennes (Reader), Fiennes (Duchess)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I'm guessing Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, WALL•E, The Wrestler
Edging out The Visitor
Unless it's to be Burn After Reading, Happy-Go-Lucky, In Bruges, Gran Torino, Synecdoche, New York (and Frozen River)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
I'm guessing The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Slumdog Millionaire
Edging out The Dark Knight
Unless it's to be Revolutionary Road

BEST FOREIGN FILM
I'm guessing The Class, Departures, The Necessities of Life, Revanche, Waltz with Bashir
Edging out Tear This Heart Out
Unless it's to be Everlasting Moments, Three Monkeys, The Baader Meinhof Complex

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
I'm guessing Encounters, I.O.U.S.A., Man on Wire, They Killed..., Trouble the Water
Edging out Standard Operating Procedure
Unless it's to be Pray the Devil Back to Hell, Betrayal, Glass (and The Garden)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
I'm guessing C.C.Benjamin, Dark, Reader, Road, Slumdog
Edging out Wrestler
Unless it's to be Changeling, Australia, Rachel

BEST ART DIRECTION
I'm guessing Changeling, C.C.Benjamin, Dark, Road, Slumdog
Edging out Duchess
Unless it's to be Reader, Australia, Doubt

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
I'm guessing Brideshead, Changeling, C.C.Benjamin, Duchess, Road
Edging out Australia
Unless it's to be Brothers Bloom, Dark, Sex, Slumdog, Other Boleyn Girl, Reader (and Milk)

BEST ANIMATED FILM
I'm guessing Bolt, WALL•E, Waltz
Edging out Kung Fu Panda

BEST FILM EDITING
I'm guessing C.C.Benjamin, Dark, Frost, Slumdog, Wrestler
Edging out Milk
Unless it's to be WALL•E, Reader, Iron Man

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
I'm guessing C.C.Benjamin, Dark, Defiance, Reader, Slumdog
Edging out Frost
Unless it's to be Changeling, WALL•E, Road, Indiana (and Milk)

BEST SOUND
I'm guessing C.C.Benjamin, Dark, Iron, Slumdog, WALL•E
Edging out Quantum
Unless it's to be Indiana, Defiance, Australia (and Wanted)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
I'm guessing "Down to Earth," "I Thought I Lost You," "Jaiho," "Once in a Lifetime," "The Wrestler"
Edging out "O Saya"
Unless it's to be "Trouble the Water," "By the Boab Tree," "In Rodanthe," "The Call," "Gran Torino," "Count on Me"

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
I'm guessing C.C.Benjamin, Dark, Iron Man
Edging out Journey
Unless it's to be Australia, Hellboy II, Mummy

BEST SOUND EFFECTS
I'm guessing C.C.Benjamin, Dark, Indiana, Iron Man, WALL•E
Edging out Quantum
Unless it's to be Defiance, Slumdog (and Wanted)

BEST MAKEUP
I'm guessing C.C.Benjamin, Dark, Hellboy II
Edging out Wrestler
Unless it's to be Tropic, Reader, Synecdoche

Oscar Nom Predictions (Pre-NBR)

Y'all, I am only doing this twice. I am not superhuman. I lack the energy to play all of the possible angles. I'm not even really that good at guessing, because I don't know how to get out of my own head, or how to hold back from the weirdo prognostication that seems totally interesting, rather than particularly likely. So I'm going to publish my thoughts before the National Board of Review kicks things off on December 4. And then I'll check in again after the National Society of Film Critics announces, whenever that is, and probably after the Golden Globes happen on January 11.

In the spirit of wet blanketude, I would also just like to go on record that the Oscars and all of its attendant hysteria might not even happen this year if the entire global economic network collapses before mid-February and we're all too busy looting the Walgreens down the street to notice, or care, about Meryl vs. Kate. And also, for the first time in history, I am more excited about what's happening on January 20 than on January 22. (Also, is Bill Conti ailing? How else am I to understand this? I'm all about Giacchino, I'm just wondering.)



BEST PICTURE
MY GUESSES: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire, Wall•E
BUT MAYBE: Revolutionary Road, Doubt, Frost/Nixon
OR EVEN: Australia, Rachel Getting Married, Defiance, The Wrestler, The Reader

BEST DIRECTOR
MY GUESSES: Danny Boyle, David Fincher, Steve McQueen, Christopher Nolan, Gus Van Sant
BUT MAYBE: Jonathan Demme, Andrew Stanton, Darren Aronofsky, Sam Mendes, Steven Soderbergh
OR EVEN: Baz Luhrmann, Stephen Daldry, Ron Howard, Edward Zwick

BEST ACTRESS
MY GUESSES: Cate Blanchett, Sally Hawkins, Kristin Scott Thomas, Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet
BUT MAYBE: Melissa Leo, Anne Hathaway, Angelina Jolie

BEST ACTOR
MY GUESSES: Leonardo DiCaprio, Clint Eastwood, Frank Langella, Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke
BUT MAYBE: Brad Pitt, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Richard Jenkins, Hugh Jackman
OR EVEN: Benicio Del Toro, Michael Fassbender, Josh Brolin

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
MY GUESSES: Penélope Cruz, Viola Davis, Rosemarie DeWitt, Kate Winslet, Elsa Zylberstein
BUT MAYBE: Taraji P. Henson, Marisa Tomei
OR EVEN: Debra Winger, Kathy Bates, Alison Pill

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
MY GUESSES: Josh Brolin, Bill Irwin, Anil Kapoor, Heath Ledger, Michael Shannon
BUT MAYBE: James Franco, Robert Downey Jr., Ralph Fiennes, Jason Flemyng
OR EVEN: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Liev Schreiber, Mark Margolis, Emile Hirsch, Brad Pitt, Kenneth Branagh

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
MY GUESSES: I've Loved You So Long, Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Wall•E, The Wrestler
BUT MAYBE: Vicky Cristina Barcelona, The Visitor
OR EVEN: Happy-Go-Lucky, Hunger, Burn After Reading, Synecdoche, New York, Waltz with Bashir, Changeling

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
MY GUESSES: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire
BUT MAYBE: Tell No One, The Reader
OR EVEN: The Dark Knight, Defiance

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
MY GUESSES: Australia, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire
BUT MAYBE: Rachel Getting Married, Milk
OR EVEN: Blindness

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
MY GUESSES: Australia, Changeling, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Duchess, Revolutionary Road
BUT MAYBE: The Fall, The Brothers Bloom, Sex and the City
OR EVEN: Brideshead Revisited, The Reader, The Other Boleyn Girl, The Reader

Maybe after I've finally seen Milk, Benjamin Button, and The Wrestler, my feelings will be different. But at the moment, don't you sort of scan the horizon of possibilities and go "Ehhhh......."? Which is too bad, because I need to get back to that summer place of being excited that Dark Knight and Wall•E were both so much better than they even "needed" to be, and it would be delightful to see critics, AMPAS, and the ticket-buying public rally behind two of the same titles for once. And, okay, that director field is pretty snazzy, if you overlook Slumdog, which I just completely, completely hate (and I will hopefully, one day soon, tell you why).

Okay, so I'm a little excited... but it's still nothing compared to January 20.