Sunday, May 24, 2009

Cannes Winner Predictions

I'll be proven wrong in just a matter of hours, but why not take a stab? Especially after blowing my calls in almost every category last year.

PALME D'OR Vincere, dir. Marco Bellocchio
(alt. The Time that Remains, dir. Elia Suleiman)
I'm guessing that The White Ribbon would look too obviously like Huppert/Haneke nepotism and that A Prophet could have that Gomorrah problem of being too obviously the "front-runner." Other possibilities for the Palme or the Grand Jury or Jury prizes: Fish Tank, Wild Grass, Kinatay, Enter the Void, and that delicious cherry-bomb Antichrist.

BEST DIRECTOR Alain Resnais, Wild Grass
(alt. Jacques Audiard, A Prophet)
Often a hideout for the filmmaker people expected to get the Palme, so Bellocchio could get in here if Vincere isn't the choice for the top prize; odds go a bit out on Haneke, who's won this before, and on Suleiman

BEST ACTRESS Katie Jarvis, Fish Tank
(alt. Giovanna Mezzogiorno, Vincere)

BEST ACTOR François Cluzet, À l'origine
(alt. Tahar Rahim or Niels Arestrup, A Prophet)
Dussolier for the Resnais film or Suleiman starring for himself aren't bad options, especially if the films' chances are scuppered elsewhere

(alt. The White Ribbon)
It seems insane to predict two prizes for a barely heralded film, but much weirder things have happened at Cannes; the Almodóvar, Suleiman, Campion, and Bellocchio could easily figure here.

TECHNICAL GRAND PRIZE Bright Star, Greig Fisher


Meanwhile, here are the Main Competition films in roughly the order in which I'm eager to see them, with links to the IFC blog entries about reactions to each film: Bright Star, Antichrist, Enter the Void, Fish Tank, A Prophet, Wild Grass, The White Ribbon, Face/Visage, Kinatay, Vincere, Broken Embraces, Spring Fever, Inglourious Basterds, The Time that Remains, In the Beginning/À l'origine, Map of the Sounds of Tokyo, Thirst, Looking for Eric, Taking Woodstock, and Vengeance... although non-Competition screenings like Police, Adjective, Polytechnique, Hierro, My Neighbor, My Killer, Tales from the Golden Age, A Brand New Life, I Killed My Mother, and especially Dogtooth, Precious, and To Die Like a Man apparently outclass most of the Palme contenders.

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Blogger Guy Lodge said...

Glad to see I'm not completely alone when it comes to my weird faith in the Suleiman and the Bellocchio, two films I'm otherwise not all that desperate to see. Such are the strange things that Cannes does to us.

In my dream scenario, "Antichrist" takes the Palme just to rub it in the face of the smug moral police, whether it's any good or not. Actually, hell, I did say "my dream scenario," so for these purposes, "Antichrist" is a masterpiece.

3:56 AM, May 24, 2009  
Blogger NATHANIEL R said...

why am i so down on VINCERE when i haven't even seen it? ah yes the biographical problem. I'm totally intrigued by FISH TANK and UN PROPHETE at this point.

and i was always going to be desperate to see BRIGHT STAR and BROKEN EMBRACES

10:13 AM, May 24, 2009  
Blogger Catherine said...

Hey Nick, this is a stab in the dark but you wouldn't happen to know of any good books on the history of Cannes?

11:01 AM, May 24, 2009  
Blogger Guy Lodge said...

I'm not Nick, obviously, but I found Kieron Corless and Chris Darke's potted history "Cannes" a thoroughly good read.

11:28 AM, May 24, 2009  
Blogger Catherine said...

Not-Nick/Guy: thank you! I just did a quick Google search and that particular book seems to be right up my alley.

11:53 AM, May 24, 2009  

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