Cannes Winner Predictions
PALME D'OR Vincere, dir. Marco Bellocchio
(alt. The Time that Remains, dir. Elia Suleiman)
I'm guessing that The White Ribbon would look too obviously like Huppert/Haneke nepotism and that A Prophet could have that Gomorrah problem of being too obviously the "front-runner." Other possibilities for the Palme or the Grand Jury or Jury prizes: Fish Tank, Wild Grass, Kinatay, Enter the Void, and that delicious cherry-bomb Antichrist.
BEST DIRECTOR Alain Resnais, Wild Grass
(alt. Jacques Audiard, A Prophet)
Often a hideout for the filmmaker people expected to get the Palme, so Bellocchio could get in here if Vincere isn't the choice for the top prize; odds go a bit out on Haneke, who's won this before, and on Suleiman
BEST ACTRESS Katie Jarvis, Fish Tank
(alt. Giovanna Mezzogiorno, Vincere)
BEST ACTOR François Cluzet, À l'origine
(alt. Tahar Rahim or Niels Arestrup, A Prophet)
Dussolier for the Resnais film or Suleiman starring for himself aren't bad options, especially if the films' chances are scuppered elsewhere
BEST SCREENPLAY À l'origine
(alt. The White Ribbon)
It seems insane to predict two prizes for a barely heralded film, but much weirder things have happened at Cannes; the Almodóvar, Suleiman, Campion, and Bellocchio could easily figure here.
TECHNICAL GRAND PRIZE Bright Star, Greig Fisher
SOME KIND OF SPECIAL JURY PRIZE FOR MAD AUDACITY Antichrist
Meanwhile, here are the Main Competition films in roughly the order in which I'm eager to see them, with links to the IFC blog entries about reactions to each film: Bright Star, Antichrist, Enter the Void, Fish Tank, A Prophet, Wild Grass, The White Ribbon, Face/Visage, Kinatay, Vincere, Broken Embraces, Spring Fever, Inglourious Basterds, The Time that Remains, In the Beginning/À l'origine, Map of the Sounds of Tokyo, Thirst, Looking for Eric, Taking Woodstock, and Vengeance... although non-Competition screenings like Police, Adjective, Polytechnique, Hierro, My Neighbor, My Killer, Tales from the Golden Age, A Brand New Life, I Killed My Mother, and especially Dogtooth, Precious, and To Die Like a Man apparently outclass most of the Palme contenders.