Saturday, October 23, 2010

October Oscar Nomination Predix

Colin and Helena probably don't need to look quite so apprehensive about the names written on that sheet. I'm guessing theirs are both on it, and Colin's already got a winner's asterisk next to his. But since I'm feeling in a weirdly predictive post-midnight mood, here's the only stab I'm taking at Oscar nomination predictions until January rolls around.

BEST PICTURE 127 Hours, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, Love & Other Drugs, The Social Network, The Town, Toy Story 3, The Way Back, Winter's Bone
Alternates: Made in Dagenham, Another Year, The Fighter, True Grit

BEST DIRECTOR Danny Boyle (127 Hours), David Fincher (The Social Network), Tom Hooper (The King's Speech), Christopher Nolan (Inception), Peter Weir (The Way Back)
Alternates: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right), Edward Zwick (Love & Other Drugs), Ben Affleck (The Town)

BEST ACTRESS Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Anne Hathaway (Love & Other Drugs), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone), Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right), Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Alternates: Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Sally Hawkins (Made in Dagenham), Lesley Manville (Another Year), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

BEST ACTOR Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Colin Firth (The King's Speech), James Franco (127 Hours), Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)
Alternates: Robert Duvall (Get Low), Jake Gyllenhaal (Love & Other Drugs), Paul Giamatti (Barney's Version), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech), Lesley Manville (Another Year), Miranda Richardson (Made in Dagenham), Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom), Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole)
Alternates: Kristin Scott Thomas (Nowhere Boy), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), Kimberly Elise (For Colored Girls), Rebecca Hall (The Town)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Andrew Garfield (The Social Network), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Sam Rockwell (Conviction), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
Alternates: Christian Bale (The Fighter), Colin Farrell (The Way Back), Ed Harris (The Way Back), Dustin Hoffman (Barney's Version)

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Blogger James T said...

Wow! I know this blog is not into predictions as much as filmexperience and incontention are, but when did the readers become so above it all? :p

Nice to know what you predict.

I don't remember you saying anything about Eisenberg's performance. Did you like it?

Re: Garfield. You predict him for The Social Network, right?

And since I go from one topic to another as randomly as I usually do: Do you think this is Bening's year? Because she seems to laugh really hard ;)

3:23 PM, October 23, 2010  
Blogger NicksFlickPicks said...

Well, maybe since I dabble so rarely in the predictions racket, it's understandably hard for anyone to care. Anyway, thanks for venturing into my corner of the room during this particular cocktail-party convo.

I think Eisenberg did what he needed to, but I think I liked him more in prior performances than some critics did, and/or revered him somewhat less in this. Actually, I thought a lot of critics gave him good notices in Rodger Dodger, Squid/Whale, Adventureland, etc., so I'm confused why I keep reading, "I didn't know he had this performance in him!" I don't think he's at all boring or all that self-repeating in Social Network, but it seemed clear to me that he had this performance in him. (And yes, this is the movie for which I imagine Garfield to be in play.)

If this were the Actress lineup, I'd indeed expect Bening to take the trophy. Everyone's saying how many strong Best Actress nomination contenders this year, which is fabulous, but it seems worth observing that all of them have heavy liabilities as potential winners. Bening's liability (smallish screen time) seems less important than others' (uneven reactions to Moore, weirdo vehicle for Portman, Who Is Jennifer Lawrence, etc.) and less likely to be strenuous competition for all of her pluses (great perf, Hollywood royalty, well-liked personally, funny and moving in the film, perceived as hugely overdue, Bening/Swank meme, perceived as championing her transgendered son in same year she's eligible for queer-themed movie, Oscar loves a wronged spouse, etc.).

10:20 PM, October 23, 2010  
Blogger The Pretentious Know it All said...

Isn't Miss Manville being campaigned as lead? A lot of people say she's in, no matter what the Another Year campaign decides to do, though personally, I don't see that logic. Even if the performance is great, she still has the liability of being an largely unknown entity. I doubt many Academy members are going to look at Lesley Manville and think "Remember her one scene in Secrets & Lies as a Rolo popping social worker? She was good. She's about due."

I see Annette Bening winning now. I've been very resistant to the idea for so long (comedic performance, relatively short screentime, early release date, etc). But it seems like the precedent has been in past years that if there were a real threat to unseat her, it would have presented herself by now in some form outside of whispery buzz. It's pretty rare by late October to only have one bonafide lock in lead actress. I'm not saying Bening is definitely going to win, but if not her, then who?

Interesting that you predict Anne Hathaway, which many people are resisting because of the Ed Zwick factor (though he certainly has a fair track record for getting his actors nominated). If anyone's poised to be a shocker and steal Bening's thunder, it's Hathaway. She's a young performer, which this category loves. She's already in the club, so it won't feel premature, unless you're part of that five percent of the population that actually thinks that Judy Garland biopic is going to happen any time soon. If the performance is good enough (read: baity enough) and hits the right notes of funny and serious, I could see Hathaway winning.

Sorry about the length of this comment.

12:41 AM, October 24, 2010  
Blogger NicksFlickPicks said...

Agreed on all counts. I haven't understood the "Bening as frontrunner" talk, either, and again, as "strong" as the category reportedly is, she'll benefit as much from other candidates' liabilities as from her own strengths. I agree that Hathaway and maybe Lawrence are her strongest competitors, if they get great campaigns. Or if Hathaway gets a Globe, or Lawrence a bunch of critics' awards.

Manville is indeed being campaigned as a lead at the moment, but I think that's likely to change, given the total vacuum of front-runners in Supporting.

12:47 AM, October 24, 2010  
Anonymous goatdog said...

I'm so out of the loop on the movies of 2010 that I can't identify some of these performers by their last names. Is that Sally Hawkins, and for what movie? And which Steinfeld, Elise, Hall, and Harris?

11:11 AM, October 24, 2010  
Blogger NicksFlickPicks said...

For you, I am happy to fill out the picture. Reload the post.

12:35 PM, October 24, 2010  
Anonymous goatdog said...

Thank you! The next cafecito is on me.

4:55 PM, October 24, 2010  
Blogger NATHANIEL R said...

you have a lot more faith in THE TOWN than I do. (i havent seen it yet though. no, i'm not sure why i'm waiting)

but i see it as too B movie (i.e. genre) to compete... i see it more as a nice set up for Ben Affleck to be nominated soon as a director but this soon?

i guess i'll go see it and rethink.

11:40 PM, October 24, 2010  

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