Saturday, January 22, 2011

Final Oscar Nom Predix

I took a stab at these three months ago, and now I'm chiming in one last time, sans commentary. I will say this: I'm going to be miffed if Debra Granik's ship comes in among the Best Director nominees, only because I went out on a limb with that early in the fall, and on Nathaniel's podcast a few weeks ago, and I don't want a repeat of Almodóvar 2002, where I get the hunch before most folks, only to give it up right before the "surprise" comes to fruition. But people sure do like that stuttering king. And I'm banking on them loving that fighter, with Wahlberg upsetting Franco and Bardem, and on at least a little bit of cool settling over the Black Swan-for-everything blitz. (Screenplay? Really? No matter how many times he says, "But I'm not only casting ze White Swan"?)

These predictions tally to 11 for Inception, 9 for The King's Speech, 8 apiece for The Fighter and The Social Network, and 6 apiece for Black Swan, Toy Story 3, and True Grit. 5 for the dread Alice, and 4 for 127 Hours, despite my decisions to shut it out from the Picture, Director, Actor, and Screenplay fields. We'll see if it gets out from underneath that rock.

BEST PICTURE Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, The Town, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone
Alternates: The Ghost Writer, 127 Hours, Another Year

BEST DIRECTOR Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), David Fincher (The Social Network), Tom Hooper (The King's Speech), Christopher Nolan (Inception), David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Alternates: Debra Granik (Winter's Bone), Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit), Roman Polanski (The Ghost Writer), Mike Leigh (Another Year)

BEST ACTRESS Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone), Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Alternates: Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), Noomi Rapace (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Lesley Manville (Another Year), Tilda Swinton (I Am Love), Hilary Swank (Conviction)

BEST ACTOR Robert Duvall (Get Low), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), Colin Firth (The King's Speech), Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine), Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)
Alternates: James Franco (127 Hours), Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Amy Adams (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech), Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Alternates: Mila Kunis (Black Swan), Lesley Manville (Another Year), Barbara Hershey (Black Swan)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Christian Bale (The Fighter), John Hawkes (Winter's Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
Alternates: Andrew Garfield (The Social Network), Sam Rockwell (Conviction)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech
Alternates: Black Swan, Animal Kingdom, Blue Valentine, Greenberg

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Ghost Writer, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone
Alternates: The Town, 127 Hours, Rabbit Hole, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 127 Hours, Black Swan, Inception, The Social Network, True Grit
Alternates: The King's Speech, Harry Potter..., Shutter Island, The Way Back

BEST FILM EDITING 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Social Network
Alternates: The King's Speech, True Grit, Toy Story 3

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM Biutiful, In a Better World, Incendies, Life, Above All, Outside the Law
Alternates: Simple Simon, Dogtooth, Even the Rain, Confessions

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE How to Train Your Dragon, Tangled, Toy Story 3
Alternates: The Illusionist, Despicable Me, My Dog Tulip

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Inside Job, Restrepo, This Way of Life, Waiting for 'Superman', Waste Land
Alternates: Precious Life, Exit Through the Gift Shop, The Tillman Story, Gasland

BEST ART DIRECTION Alice in Wonderland, Inception, The King's Speech, The Social Network, True Grit
Alternates: Shutter Island, Black Swan, Harry Potter...

BEST COSTUME DESIGN Alice in Wonderland, Burlesque, Inception, The King's Speech, True Grit
Alternates: Robin Hood, Made in Dagenham, Black Swan, The Tempest, TRON: Legacy

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Alice in Wonderland, The Ghost Writer, Inception, The King's Speech, The Social Network
Alternates: Never Let Me Go, 127 Hours, How to Train Your Dragon, Let Me In, Robin Hood, Winter's Bone

BEST SOUND MIXING 127 Hours, Black Swan, Inception, Toy Story 3, Unstoppable
Alternates: TRON: Legacy, The Social Network, Shutter Island, True Grit, Burlesque, Salt

BEST SOUND EDITING 127 Hours, Inception, Toy Story 3, TRON: Legacy, Unstoppable
Alternates: Salt, Black Swan, The Social Network, Shutter Island

BEST ORIGINAL SONG "I See the Light," "Me and Tennessee," "Shine," "We Belong Together," "You Haven't See the Last of Me"
Alternates: "If I Rise," "Little One," "Bound to You," "There's a Place for Us," "Better Days"

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter..., Inception, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, TRON: Legacy
Alternates: Hereafter (my last change!), Iron Man 2

BEST MAKEUP Alice in Wonderland, The Way Back, The Wolf Man
Alternates: True Grit, Jonah Hex, The Fighter, Barney's Version

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Blogger Dame James said...

Love you, but I hope you are WRONG, WRONG, WRONG about the Andy Garfield snub in Best Supporting Actor. I will riot in the streets if it doesn't happen. I know he does not have a prayer of winning, but he's my one "this makes me feel good as a human being" nomination of the year.

12:08 AM, January 22, 2011  
Blogger NicksFlickPicks said...

For what it's worth, I usually am wrong!

12:19 AM, January 22, 2011  
Blogger GlenH said...

Isn't it a bit of a cheat to include the whole shortlist with the alternates for best foreign pic :) ? Surely you could drop Confessions?

(And I'm still clinging to the idea that Rabbit Hole could be an outside best picture chance. Silly, I know.)

2:09 AM, January 22, 2011  
Blogger Alex Constantin said...

some of your predictions are crazy :D

why would you think they'd ignore James Franco?! he's in every scene of that film and quite fabulous if you'd ask me. but more importantly: he and Jesse were the only ones taking some critics awards away from Colin Firth, he has been nominated everywhere, etc etc.

I hope you don't think the hosting gig works against him :)

10:00 AM, January 22, 2011  
Blogger NicksFlickPicks said...

@GlenH: I suppose so! But if they're going to pass me their notes in advance, I'm going to use them. Did the same thing in Visual Effects, etc.

@Alex: Thanks for being cheerful about it! No guts, no glory, etc. There's almost always something that falls apart at the last minute: Dreamgirls, etc. I really don't think the critics' groups outside the major four or five count for anything. Seems like Wahlberg is peaking at right time, and I'm projecting some of my own Franco Fatigue, too. But you're right that I'm probably wrong!

10:57 AM, January 22, 2011  

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