2014 Oscar Predictions, Preferences, and Updated Reflections

One of Mason's formative experiences in Boyhood came in Winter 2003, when he was five, surfing the iMac, trying to figure out if Daniel Day-Lewis or Jack Nicholson was going to win Best Actor.  He found Nick's Flick Picks and saw that Adrien Brody had a real shot.  Why Sandra Adair couldn't include a one-second insert on my website, I can't quite say; it was the last time I was right about a high-profile, difficult-to-call Oscar race, which surely deserves commemorating.  This year's competitions are so inscrutable at so many high altitudes that I'm worried about Mason and me being able to share another moment like that.  But kid, I'm going to try.

Best Documentary Short, Best Animated Short, and Best Live Action Short
Reader, I haven't seen them. If you knew what February is like for college faculty... I want to believe Crisis Hotline, The Bigger Picture, and The Phone Call have the best shots, based on what friends are telling me, but I'm in no position to predict, much less to prefer.
Winners: Crisis Hotline, Feast, and The Phone Call. Two out of three good calls, without even seeing them! Feast's win for Animated Short augured good things to come for the feature it accompanied in theaters. Meanwhile, Neil Patrick Harris made a pretty crass joke at the seeming expense of the Crisis Hotline co-director... who, making matters worse, had just mentioned her son's suicide, moments before the band played her off and he dinged her for her dress.  This unfortunate beat was somewhat emblematic of a weirdly off-key and disappointing performance from our host.

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Virunga
Should Win: Citizenfour (of the two I've seen)
Also Nominated: Finding Vivian Maier, Last Days in Vietnam, The Salt of the Earth
Here I feel more shame, since I usually make a point of seeing these even before they get nominated. Last Days of Vietnam is sitting, rented but unwatched, in my Amazon Video Library. Virunga is sitting on Netflix, to which I admittedly don't belong, but I know friends could've hooked me up.  I realize Citizenfour looks like a prohibitive favorite, but Edward Snowden is at least as divisive a figure as Chris Kyle; even his admirers sometimes gripe, fairly or not, that Citizenfour is too close to raw footage, or that its historical importance outstrips its aesthetic achievement.  I wouldn't be surprised to see any of these win, but I think the braided emotional appeals of Virunga (pro-animal, anti-war) might give it an edge.
Winner: Citizenfour. Okay, it's possible I over-thought this. Of all the races, this is the one whose vote totals I would be most curious to see.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Also Nominated: Foxcatcher, Guardians of the Galaxy
Another race where I wouldn't be surprised if every nominee had healthy support, but this still looks like an easy get for Budapest.  Every character has a memorable look, from the most ostentatious (Swinton, Ronan) to the relatively subtle (Abraham, Law), and in this crowd it has BPA (Best Picture Advantage).  The Grand Budapest Hotel could easily win more races than any other movie this year.
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel. All of Wes Anderson's colleagues seemed genuinely thrilled to thank him. Wonderfully palpable affection.

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Liveblogging the 2014 Golden Globes

10:02: I'm a ridiculous person, but thanks to everyone who read along.  And it's never too late to comment, or to read about some of my favorites of the year, or to learn about 120-year old movies, or to count down till the Top 10 list next weekend. Keep coming back! 

10:00: And BEST PICTURE (DRAMA) goes to a movie Meryl has re-christened Boyhoooood. The Ellar-Lorelei-Ethan-Patricia family is having the best time up there.  They feel like a family!  (But Patricia is clearly being pierced by her whalebone corset.  It's a new century, girl! We have Spanx now, and Tadashi Shoji! No need to go full Edith Wharton if it's hurting you. Or just let it hang out! What I'm saying is, the pain isn't worth it.)

9:59: Imitation Game's won nothing, right? I'm really asking.  Even though it seems like I'm just rubbing it in.

9:58: Only in this immediate context, I feel a bit sorry for this American Sniper ad.

9:57: And I assume it's going to be Boyhood? But it could be any of them, kind of, Foxcatcher aside? Right?

9:56: FOR ONCE, Meryl is going to present Best Picture!  Hasn't that literally never happened?

9:54: When Eddie Redmayne wins BEST ACTOR (DRAMA), his fellow nominees all get visibly misty-eyed, especially Gyllenhaal and Oyelowo, but whether they're sad about losing or inspired by him or just tired past their wits or 45% constituted of champagne, it's all impossible to say.

9:53: I don't know who Benedict and Keira brought with them as their dates to this thing but they don't even stand for Julianne Moore winning BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) and one of them checked her phone while Julianne walked up there, so as far as I'm concerned they are beasts and should be outside getting trained or even walked.

9:50: "When your producers tell you you're running long, there's only one thing to do. Ladies and gentlemen, Matthew McConaughey." The joke has no time to ripple, because McConaughey immediately starts doing this weird Yoknapatawpha thing with his voice, and everyone is uncomfortable. And by that, I mean I am.

9:48: What've we got left? Julianne and the Actor and Picture (Drama) prizes? Am I forgetting anything? Did Modern Family already win?

9:44: Robert Downey, Jr., presenting BEST PICTURE (MUSICAL/COMEDY) to something that sh... Whoa!!! It's The Grand Budapest Hotel!! Wes had to put down his glue stick and plastic scissors so fast in order to get up there!  Not too many powerful or actual women on that stage with him, but he at least gets more laugh than any scripted "funny bit" all night. (Well, at least since the Amal Alamuddin joke, which remains the night's clear peak.)

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The Fifties 2014: Actor, Actress, Director, Picture

ACTOR

NICK'S PICKS:

Macon Blair, Blue Ruin: Communicates the everyman quality of the character without condescending to him. Never turns into a killing machine.

Jim Broadbent, Le Week-end: Just as he was nearing Maggie Smith levels of typecasting, he plays someone angrier, sadder, hornier, more fun.

Pierre Deladonchamps, Stranger by the Lake: Not a wallflower or an idiot but shows us the character's nerves and his unreliable conscience.

Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel: Distinctive enough he isn't just doing "a Wes Anderson character," and he's dapper, funny, and sad.

Sergio Hernández, Gloria: We sense his desire for Gloria and the certainty that he will disappoint her. You resent him but still sympathize.

Runners Up: Tom Cruise, Edge of Tomorrow; Jake Gyllenhaal, Enemy; Archie Alemania, Norte, the End of History
On the Radar: Tom Hiddleston, Only Lovers Left Alive

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The Fifties 2014: Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Original Screenplay, Art Direction

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

JOE'S PICKS:

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood: Because shouldering an entire alternate perspective isn't easy, and she sells her big moments.

Jillian Bell, 22 Jump Street: For going all Rebel Wilson on this shit, stealing the entire movie, and probably booking herself about six further gigs.

Emily Blunt, Edge of Tomorrow: For handling the tricky balance of both subject and object at once. Parcels herself out incredibly smartly.

Gaby Hoffmann, Obvious Child: For continuing the Hoffmannassaince with a whole bunch of new colors and a quiet confidence of someone who can steal scenes without really trying to steal scenes.

Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer: For getting on a tricky wavelength and going for it, like she always does, and succeeding, like she pretty much always does. And some spillover goodwill for Only Lovers Left Alive, sure, yes.

Runners Up: Krysten Ritter, Veronica Mars; Mia Wasikowska, Only Lovers Left Alive; Melanie Lynskey, Happy Christmas; Kathy Bates, Tammy

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The Fifties 2014: Ensemble, Foreign Film, Costumes, Sound

ENSEMBLE CAST

NICK'S PICKS:

Gloria: A star vehicle and beguiling two-hander that expands gracefully to include relatives and background players of real color and depth.

Hide Your Smiling Faces: The movie I wanted the best parts of Mud to be, with an eye for child actors and adults who do a lot with a little.

Ilo Ilo: Where the kid, the parents, and the nanny all feel intimate with each other and strange to each other. Everyone nails the dramedy.

Only Lovers Left Alive: Another smallish ensemble, but drawing dissimilar actors so fully in line with Jarmusch's peculiar idiom is a feat.

Unrelated: Where almost every actor has at least two roles to play, except the lead, who has no role to play. Gives and takes all marvelous.

Honorable Mentions: Boyhood (missed my cutoff)
Runners Up: Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow?, Begin Again, Borgman, Neighbors, Obvious Child, Young & Beautiful, Cold in July
On the Radar: Non-Stop, The Grand Budapest Hotel, It Felt Like Love

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The Fifties 2014: Supporting Actor, Original Score, Adapted Screenplay

SUPPORTING ACTOR

NICK'S PICKS:

Carlo Cecchi, Honey (Miele): Because even if the film hints what he might be up to, the actor keeps you guessing, not just about what but about why.

Patrick d'Assumçao, Stranger by the Lake: Because he doesn't pity his character and pulls focus from all those penises, deepening the movie.

Jeff Goldblum, Le Week-end: Because even if we've seen this acerbic maybe-asshole from Goldblum before, he's especially spry and funny here.

Tom Hiddleston, Unrelated: For keeping within a limited spectrum, never getting fully attached to Anna but leaning toward and away from her.

Jake Lacy, Obvious Child: For playing a more vanilla guy than the genre or the lead usually invite but convincing us he's a happy accident.

Honorable Mentions: Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart, made for cable; Ethan Hawke, Boyhood, missed my cutoff
Runners Up: Àlex Brendemühl, The German Doctor; Ronen Rubinstein, It Felt Like Love; Johan Leysen, Young & Beautiful; James Corden, Begin Again

On the Radar: Sam Shepard, Cold in July; Don Johnson, Cold in July; Adam Levine, Begin Again

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The Fifties 2014: Editing and Visual Effects

FILM EDITING

JOE'S PICKS:

Boyhood (Sandra Adair): The ambition of the project puts a spotlight on the editing process, but making three hours feel so tantalizingly quick is more than just a gimmick.

Edge of Tomorrow (James Herbert): The editing is kind of front and center on this one too, and the whole enterprise would pretty much crash and burn without a sure hand. A few extra thumbs up for the comedy elements in the middle section, almost entirely editing-based.

Hide Your Smiling Faces (Daniel Patrick Carbone): Letting this story unfold at its own pace, with the vagaries and languidness of a childhood summer vacation.

Stranger by the Lake (Jean-Christophe Hym): Suspense born of long- and close-shots, cut together with dreamy precision.

Under the Skin (Paul Watts): Making juuuust enough sense of the plot without spelling it out for the audience. Working in tandem with Johansson to portion out her increasing empathy as deliberately as possible.

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The Fifties Eligibility Lists, 2014

It's all happening... Joe Reid, whom you know and love from The Wire and from the Film Experience podcasts, will join me again for The Fifties, my annual tradition of listing the best achievements in major Oscar categories in the year by around mid-summer, once I've hit the milestone of seeing 50 U.S. commercial releases from the calendar year. Beyond sharing ridiculous list-mania, Joe and I have a knack for reaching that goalpost at almost exactly the same time without even trying. We don't, however, see all the same movies—this year we only overlap on 26 titles—so you can't draw a one-to-one comparison between our choices.  Happily, the discrepancies increase the overall eligibility pool and make consensus all the more striking when it does emerge.

We are very aware of not finishing our announcements last year. To prevent that happening again, we've already filled out our individual ballots and are planning shorter conversations about our choices. The first categories will be posted soon. For now, here are the lists of films we're each working from, with shared titles in bold. File your favorites and FYC's in the Comments! And use that space to fight over whether Emily Blunt is a lead or a supporting player in Edge of Tomorrow.

P.S. Now that The Fifties are finished, I've included final nomination tallies for each movie in parentheses.

NICK'S FIRST 50 (25 got nominations) 22 Jump Street Afternoon of a Faun: Tanaquil Le Clercq Before You Know It Begin Again (3) Belle (1) Blue Ruin (2) Borgman Child's Pose Closed Curtain Cold in July Edge of Tomorrow (9) Enemy The Final Member Frankie & Alice The German Doctor (1) Gloria (4) Godzilla (2) The Grand Budapest Hotel (4) Heli (2) Hide Your Smiling Faces (1) Honey (2) How to Train Your Dragon 2 Ida (5) Ilo Ilo (4) The Immigrant (8) It Felt Like Love The Last of the Unjust (3) The LEGO Movie (1) Like Father, Like Son Maleficent (1) The Missing Picture (5) Neighbors Night Moves Noah Non-Stop Norte, the End of History (5) Nymphomaniac, Vol. 1 Nymphomaniac, Vol. 2 Obvious Child (4) Only Lovers Left Alive (8) The Rover Snowpiercer Stranger by the Lake (2) Tammy They Came Together Under the Skin (7) Unrelated (8) Le Week-end (3) Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow? Young & Beautiful

JOE'S FIRST 50 (29 got nominations) 22 Jump Street (1) Adult World The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Blue Ruin (3) Borgman (2) Boyhood (6) Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2) Chef (1) The Congress (6) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (2) Devil's Knot Divergent Edge of Tomorrow (8) Elaine Stritch: Shoot Me G.B.F. The German Doctor Gloria (3) Godzilla (4) The Grand Budapest Hotel (3) Happy Christmas Hide Your Smiling Faces (3) How to Train Your Dragon 2 (1) The Immigrant (2) The LEGO Movie Locke (2) Lucky Them Maleficent Neighbors (1) Night Moves Noah (1) Non-Stop Obvious Child (6) Omar (1) Only Lovers Left Alive (6) The Pretty One Raze (1) The Sacrament Snowpiercer (6) Stand Clear of the Closing Doors Stranger by the Lake (8) Tammy Teenage They Came Together Trust Me Under the Skin (8) Veronica Mars (1) Le Week-end (1) Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow? (1) Winter's Tale X-Men: Days of Future Past (1)

We both elected to disqualify The Normal Heart and other movies that premiered on U.S. television, as well as films scheduled for U.S. release later this year that haven't technically bowed yet (which for me knocks out Child of God, The Dog, and Tracks). Joe got to Boyhood and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes before the 50-film cutoff but I didn't.